Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 5 Jan 2026, the highest close was 37.5% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 4% on 31 Dec 2025. $9.64K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 5, 4:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 5 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 37.5% |
| 5 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.61K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 425 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 346.97 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 316.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 28, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, and January 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-6pt5-or-above-earthquakes-by-january-4
| Kunji | Yes | 306.56 |
| 9735 | Yes | 299.98 |
| itsjustcheddar | Yes | 214.1 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 210 |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 174.85 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 158.99 |
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