Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 22 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 46% on 23 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 38.6% on 21 Sep 2026. $5.29K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 9:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 22 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | 16.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.42K |
| dsfd3 | Yes | 580 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 380.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-september-2026
| Yes |
| 108.09 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 100 |
| Arealgood | Yes | 51.57 |
| tinman2 | Yes | 50 |
| Slim-Target | Yes | 36.01 |
| Neon Atlas F332 | Yes | 33 |
| tryrktry | Yes | 25 |
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