
Resolved No on 12 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 3 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 3 Apr 2026 to 9 Apr 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 7 Apr 2026 and the lowest 4% on 9 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 46.5% on 7 Apr 2026. $472.06 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 13, 12:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 3 Apr 2026 – 9 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | 43.5% |
| 9 Apr 2026 | 4.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 623.99 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 103 |
| sfoijsxvzx | Yes | 79.99 |
| redbulladdicted | Yes | 32.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 5, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 11, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-major-space-weather-events-this-week-april-5-april-11
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 15 |
| weatherlover21 | Yes | 11 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
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