Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?

Resolved

No, settled May 18, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$9.1K

Resolved

Settled

May 18, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 18 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 91%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 10 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 10 May 2026 to 18 May 2026, the highest close was 20.5% on 16 May 2026 and the lowest 8% on 14 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 16% on 15 May 2026. $9.07K traded over the market's life.

16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 19, 6:38 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 10 May 2026 – 18 May 2026, chart shows 5%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 May 2026	9.5%
18 May 2026	9.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.53K
AlwaysHere	Yes	666
aeiou01	Yes	114.22
Lavincey	Yes	71.08

10 of 16 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.