Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 52.5%. Yes opened at 29% on 20 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2026 to 26 Feb 2026, the highest close was 47.5% on 26 Feb 2026 and the lowest 29% on 20 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 40.5% on 22 Feb 2026. $232.18 traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 26, 4:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 20 Feb 2026 – 26 Feb 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | 29.0% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | 47.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 261 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 200 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims (initial claims) made in the US during the week ending February 21, 2026, according to the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report released by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) for the specified week. The DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is typically released on Thursday at 8:30 ET, referencing data for the previous week (the week ending on the previous Saturday), with limited exceptions. Upon release, the report will be made available here: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf This market may resolve as soon as the specified report with relevant data is released. If no Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the specified week is released within 14 calendar days of the date on which the reference week ended, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report released for the specified week (https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-jobless-claims-during-the-week-ending-feb-21
| Yes |
| 20 |
| Smug-Formamide | Yes | 2.56 |
| traderonthew | Yes | 2.55 |
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