Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$35.0K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 36% on 24 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 36% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 22% on 25 Jan 2026. $35.03K traded over the market's life.

36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
24 Jan 2026	36.0%
1 Feb 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	620
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	389
UsuarioDesconocido23	Yes	336.67
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	332

10 of 36 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.