Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 15, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$5.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 15, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 15 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 89% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 15 Jan 2026, the highest close was 100% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 89% on 8 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.7 points up, to 96.7% on 9 Jan 2026. $5.24K traded over the market's life.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 23, 5:19 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 15 Jan 2026, chart shows 85%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Jan 2026	89.0%
15 Jan 2026	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	205
MiraPruu	No	174.82
Emerald Pioneer D14A	No	170
Bold Scout BD7E	No	116

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.