Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jul 10, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$9.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jul 10, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 10 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 84% on 2 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 10 Jul 2026, the highest close was 99.8% on 10 Jul 2026 and the lowest 84% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 98.6% on 3 Jul 2026. $9.37K traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 27, 9:41 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 10 Jul 2026, chart shows 80%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Jul 2026	84.0%
10 Jul 2026	99.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Vallybriggs	No	872.67
Salvafreeman	No	118.4
TENETENET	No	100
bjprolo	No	80

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.