Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 24, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$211.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 24, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 24 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 45% on 4 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 113 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2025 to 24 Dec 2025, the highest close was 100% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 11% on 24 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 88% on 11 Dec 2025. $211.19K traded over the market's life.

110 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 113 points, 4 Sep 2025 – 24 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Sep 2025	45.0%
24 Dec 2025	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Scary-Camper	No	2.84K
GrayCat	No	1.36K
Thewin	No	1K

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 2,000 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.