Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled May 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$74.3K

Resolved

Settled

May 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 73.5% on 28 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 76% on 29 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Apr 2026. $74.28K traded over the market's life.

45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 2, 2:36 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 28 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Mar 2026	73.5%
1 May 2026	0.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
romirr	Yes	1.23K
rocketguynz	Yes	643.54
Itz-me	Yes	308.23
AnthonyNelson1362	Yes	224

10 of 45 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.