Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Apr 24, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$39.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Apr 24, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 24 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 65%. Yes opened at 53% on 23 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 23 Apr 2026 to 24 Apr 2026, the highest close was 65% on 24 Apr 2026 and the lowest 53% on 23 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 65% on 24 Apr 2026. $39.33K traded over the market's life.

7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 25, 3:38 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 23 Apr 2026 – 24 Apr 2026, chart shows 50%–70%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
23 Apr 2026	53.0%
24 Apr 2026	65.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
metapandax	Yes	2.3K
Jade Pulse 30D3	No	1.01K
AntonioSoto8053	No	822
Lavincey	No	199

7 of 7 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.