Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 18 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 18 Aug 2026 to 4 Sep 2026, the highest close was 99.9% on 31 Aug 2026 and the lowest 50% on 18 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 40 points up, to 98.7% on 21 Aug 2026. $3.02K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 4, 2:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 18 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 99.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Negative-Satisfaction | No | 323.34 |
| nhadap | No | 146.86 |
| DatosNoRelatos | No | 55.56 |
| Menacing-Revitalization-Anorak | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify. If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point. Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered. The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/where-will-a-6pt0-earthquake-occur-by-august-31-20260811153256891
| PPMT | No | 30 |
| Squeaky-Envy | No | 21.28 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 20 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| Attached-Prairie | No | 8.72 |
| Weepy-Item | No | 5 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
