Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

weatherResolved

No, settled Oct 20, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$4.2K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 20, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 20 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 10 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 20 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.5% on 12 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 1% on 14 Oct 2026. $4.2K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 20, 11:57 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 20 Oct 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
blastimas	Yes	498.77
Indigo Signal 2966	No	245.99
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.