Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?

On May 12, 2025, the United States and China announced a 90-day mutual reduction in tariffs as part of a temporary trade de-escalation agreement. This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on August 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 60% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15