Analytics
“Will the US strike Somalia next?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Next Country US Strikes”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Feb 17, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 4 hourly price points from Feb 17, 2026 to Feb 20, 2026 (Yes between 77.0% and 100.0%); 99 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 89.0% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 188 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country that is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will remain open until 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting in order to account for the possibility of an earlier strike. In cases where the precise time of a strike is not confirmed by U.S. government sources the following standards will be applied: If a strike is announced as happening on a specified date without an exact time, the market will resolve based on the time of the strike based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the timing of the strike cannot be determined by a consensus of credible reporting by 5:00 PM ET on the day following the initial announcement/reporting, the strike will be considered to have occurred on the reported date at 12:00 PM in the time zone in which the strike occurred. In the case of multiple strikes being announced/reported to have occurred on the same date, with a lack of a precise time being reported for one or multiple of the strikes, a consensus of credible reporting establishing which strike occurred first may be used to resolve the market even if the precise times of the strike(s) aren’t known. If no consensus of the order of the strikes exists, the market will resolve based on assuming a strike time of 12 PM local time (on the listed strike date) for any strike without a published time. If a tie still persists due to a shared time zone, the market will resolve according to the order they were announced in. If publication timestamps are identical or cannot be reliably compared, the market will resolve according to the alphabetical order of the struck countries listed names. The primary resolution source will be official public statements or publications by the U.S. government (including but not limited to AFRICOM, CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM, SOCOM, the Department of Defense, the White House, or other U.S. agencies). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-strike-somalia-next-229
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| No |
| 50.3K |
| NEXEN1 | No | 50K |
| Feminine-Crayon | No | 12.24K |
| Connyholidays | No | 7.02K |
| Bergselademad | No | 4.26K |
| hajan | No | 2K |
| Sadshon | No | 1.5K |
| Fuzzy-Narrative | No | 1.44K |
| Areeey | No | 1.37K |
| Happy-Go-Lucky-Clank | No | 1.03K |