Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.8%. Yes opened at 9% on 21 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 36% on 23 Jan 2026 and the low 0.8% on 2 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 0.8% on 2 Feb 2026. $940.82 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 4, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 14 points · 21 Jan 2026 – 3 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | 9.0% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 5.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 417.47 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 50 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 15 |
| 16r0ob | Yes | 11.68 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 10 |
| Quick-Insect | Yes | 2.5 |
| ExpectTheUnexpected | No | 0.04 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will not qualify, regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. Markets may resolve to "No" as soon as strikes on more than the specified amount of different sovereign UN member states' soil have been confirmed. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the US at the time of market creation will not be counted toward this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-january
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