Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 10 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 84 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 50% on 10 Oct 2023 and the lowest 2.3% on 27 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 28.5% on 11 Oct 2023. $46.88K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 3:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 84 points, 10 Oct 2023 – 1 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2023 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 4.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Pioneer 757C | Yes | 40 |
| Fanis | Yes | 2.27 |
| HarvardInsider | No | 0.33 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. officially states that Iran was directly involved, beyond just funding organizations and proxies, in the recent attack on Israel on or before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. The statement must be made by a U.S. government official and should be verifiable through reliable sources, such as verified news outlets or official U.S. government statements. If no such statement is made by the stated date, the market will resolve to "No". If a statement is made before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-publicly-state-that-iran-was-directly-involved-with-the-recent-attack-on-israel-in-2023
| No |
| 0.01 |
| BelugaBets | No | 0.01 |
| WashTrade | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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