Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 40 and 50?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 30, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$9.9K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 30, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 24 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 30 Jan 2026, the highest close was 50% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 30 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 17% on 26 Jan 2026. $9.93K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 12:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 30 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
24 Jan 2026	50.0%
30 Jan 2026	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.07K
Loud-Delivery	Yes	1K
Dinetto	Yes	500

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on February 2, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.