Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 1 of the 2026 flu season be at least 35?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 16, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$10.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 16, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 16 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.9%. Yes opened at 55% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 16 Jan 2026, the highest close was 98.6% on 12 Jan 2026 and the lowest 55% on 8 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 94.5% on 11 Jan 2026. $10.17K traded over the market's life.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 12:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 16 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Jan 2026	55.0%
16 Jan 2026	96.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Royal Maven 00BB	No	2.51K
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	205
Emerald Pioneer D14A	No	169.98

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for Week 1 of 2026, is at least as high as the specified number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by January 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for Week 1, 2025 will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.