Will the U.K.’s October–December 2025 unemployment rate be 5.1%?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 17, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$315

Resolved

Settled

Feb 17, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 17 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 53%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 27 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 27 Jan 2026 to 17 Feb 2026, the highest close was 47% on 17 Feb 2026 and the lowest 21% on 2 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 39.5% on 14 Feb 2026. $315.48 traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 18, 8:26 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 27 Jan 2026 – 17 Feb 2026, chart shows 10%–60%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
27 Jan 2026	44.5%
17 Feb 2026	47.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	413.36
paspor	Yes	59
t189	Yes	49.99
Utter-Downgrade	Yes	22

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the Labour Force Survey for October to December 2025. The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on February 17, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available ‘Employment in the UK’ release. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.