Will the total number of TSA passengers for May 11 - May 17 be greater than 18,500,000?

Resolved

No, settled May 18, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.7K

Resolved

Settled

May 18, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 18 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 74.9%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 10 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 10 May 2026 to 18 May 2026, the highest close was 26% on 11 May 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 15 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 2.1% on 12 May 2026. $1.75K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 19, 12:06 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 10 May 2026 – 18 May 2026, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 May 2026	25.5%
18 May 2026	25.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TENETENET	Yes	100
Indigo Signal 2966	No	62
triklozoid	Yes	28.69
Big-Surgery	Yes	10.15

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for any of the dates from May 11, 2026 to May 17, 2026 by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.