Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 19 - January 25 be between 14,750,000 and 15,000,000?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 26, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$4.9K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 26, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 26 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 81.7%. Yes opened at 39.5% on 17 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2026 to 26 Jan 2026, the highest close was 63.5% on 21 Jan 2026 and the lowest 17.4% on 25 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 42% on 22 Jan 2026. $4.91K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 27, 4:21 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 26 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
17 Jan 2026	39.5%
26 Jan 2026	18.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.38K
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	293
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	290
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	228

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between January 19, 2026 and January 25, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for any of the dates from January 19, 2026 to January 25, 2026 by March 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.