Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 14 be between 1,500,000 and 1,600,000?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 15, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$594

Resolved

Settled

Jan 15, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 15 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 96%. Yes opened at 47% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 15 Jan 2026, the highest close was 47% on 8 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 14 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 19% on 9 Jan 2026. $593.74 traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 4:23 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 15 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
8 Jan 2026	47.0%
15 Jan 2026	4.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	232.29
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	128.95
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	115.94
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	57.06

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on January 14, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.