Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 31 be between 2,250,000 and 2,500,000?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$3.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 2 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 27%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 2 Jan 2026, the highest close was 46.5% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 20.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 36.5% on 27 Dec 2025. $3.72K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 3, 4:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 2 Jan 2026, chart shows 10%–60%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
24 Dec 2025	46.5%
2 Jan 2026	27.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.46K
TENETENET	No	499.99
9735	No	300
shine	No	257

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on December 31, 2025. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.