Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 15-21 be between 17,750,000 and 18,000,000?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 22, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$24.7K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 22, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 22 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 49%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 22 Dec 2025, the highest close was 53.5% on 19 Dec 2025 and the lowest 35% on 14 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 35% on 14 Dec 2025. $24.73K traded over the market's life.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 24, 12:28 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 22 Dec 2025, chart shows 30%–60%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Dec 2025	50.0%
22 Dec 2025	51.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	10.55K
Sarcastic-Kennel	Yes	2.12K
TENETENET	Yes	500
AndreasMARW2025	Yes	400.46

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between December 15 and December 21, 2025 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for any of the dates from December 15, 2025 to December 21, 2025 by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.