Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 27 - May 3 be less than 16,500,000?

Resolved

No, settled May 4, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$412

Resolved

Settled

May 4, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 4 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 25 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 25 Apr 2026 to 4 May 2026, the highest close was 47.5% on 25 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 1.9% on 2 May 2026. $412.16 traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 5, 12:11 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 25 Apr 2026 – 4 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
25 Apr 2026	47.5%
4 May 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	124.54
cry.eth2	Yes	102
TENETENET	Yes	100
triklozoid	Yes	50

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between April 27, 2026 and May 3, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for any of the dates from April 27, 2026 to May 3, 2026 by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.