Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 53.5% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 54 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 3 Feb 2026, the highest close was 53.5% on 13 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 21 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 32.5% on 25 Dec 2025. $1.45M traded over the market's life.
191 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 4, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 54 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 3 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 53.5% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 425.69K |
| Smart-bettor7 | Yes | 34.73K |
| p5phantom | Yes | 22.57K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" box office will gross domestically by January 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (December 19, 2025) and January 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including January 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avatar-fire-and-ash-total-domestic-gross-by-january-31
| Yes |
| 18.05K |
| hello67 | Yes | 17.97K |
| Justintx | Yes | 13.12K |
| Wealthy-Advocacy | Yes | 12.26K |
| Simmy441 | Yes | 8.98K |
| Emerald Orbit ED13 | Yes | 8.92K |
| Profeta1 | Yes | 8.25K |
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