Question 1

What is the “Will the Suez Canal close in 2023?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the Suez Canal close in 2023? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Dec 31, 2023. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Suez Canal is officially closed to maritime traffic for any duration of time at any point during the year 2023 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The closure refers to a complete halt of maritime traffic, not partial or one-way restrictions. The market can resolve early if an official closure of the Suez Canal is announced and confirmed prior to the end of 2023. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority and/or the government of Egypt, however a consensus of credible sources may also be used.

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($0) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 1, 10:41 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 7

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-suez-canal-close-in-2023) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will the Suez Canal close in 2023?

Questions about this market