Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 40% on 24 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2025 to 7 Oct 2025, the highest close was 40% on 24 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 4.2% on 25 Sep 2025. $21.03K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 2:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 24 Sep 2025 – 7 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2025 | 40.0% |
| 7 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.71K |
| ooharu | Yes | 791.18 |
| jimmypistol | Yes | 448.32 |
This market will resolve according to how much "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 3 - October 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by October 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/the-smashing-machine-opening-weekend-box-office
| Ziigmund | Yes | 359 |
| chenmf | Yes | 333.33 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 197.92 |
| Maskache | Yes | 115.89 |
| Limp-Pit | Yes | 81.81 |
| onemoretimeplz | Yes | 50 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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