Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.1%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 25.5% on 24 Dec 2025 and the low 0.7% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.4 points down, to 3.5% on 10 Jan 2026. $27.76K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 4:23 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 40 points · 24 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 25.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 1.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Able-Cormorant | Yes | 226.98 |
| JakeBeez | Yes | 143.73 |
| ProbablyPomPom | Yes | 83.98 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 50 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture El Obeid (https://maps.app.goo.gl/NQaTN51errVH9KyN6) by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "El-Obeid Great Mosque" (مسجد الأبيّض الكبير: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LyxD1PPGux7CYSdYA) by the resolution date. If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-rsf-capture-el-obeid-by-january-31
| Watery-Jeans | Yes | 36.4 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 15 |
| MelanieCunningham6638 | Yes | 4 |
| BrianCole4546 | Yes | 3 |
| thepolwinner | Yes | 1 |
| thanglong | No | 0.03 |
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