Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 90.5%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 2 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2025 to 3 Jul 2025, the highest close was 28.5% on 2 Jul 2025 and the lowest 9.5% on 3 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 9.5% on 3 Jul 2025. $37.87K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 2 Jul 2025 – 3 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | 28.5% |
| 3 Jul 2025 | 9.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.6K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 439 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 79 |
| daveocube | Yes | 51.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of House members that vote in favor of the next reconciliation bill in the House of Represenantitives by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first final passage vote (not a motion to proceed or a cloture vote), regardless of if the bill is passed. The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Azure Vector 8B95 | Yes | 20 |
| shine | No | 0.02 |
| smoltrader | No | 0.01 |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | No | 0.01 |
| .AnA.luz | No | 0.01 |
