Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 24 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 71 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 34.5% on 24 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 11.5% on 25 Oct 2025. $6.17K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 24 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2025 | 34.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.08K |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| Valnir | Yes | 462.88 |
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2025, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) for the final business day of December 2025, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by January 7, 2026, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/argentina-official-usd-exchange-rate-on-december-31
| Yes |
| 285.72 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 254 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 231 |
| Quaint-Infix | Yes | 201.07 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 191 |
| l0wh1gh | Yes | 106.31 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 90 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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