Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 51%. Yes opened at 42% on 25 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 25 Apr 2026 to 30 Apr 2026, the highest close was 59.5% on 27 Apr 2026 and the lowest 35% on 29 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 35% on 29 Apr 2026. $599.51 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 2:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 25 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | 42.0% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 51.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| w34th3r | No | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | No | 5 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | No | 5 |
| 42ds | No | 1.52 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between April 27 and May 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article. Sub-headlines, defined as additional bolded or enlarged text not separated from the primary headline by any text, will count, whether they appear before the byline or are partially surrounded by the article text but still adjacent to the primary headline. Pull quotes, however, or any bolded text not adjacent to the primary headline, will not count. Banner headlines, defined as front-page headlines bordered on the sides only by white space, will count. Image captions, article text, or any other text that does not constitute a headline, will not qualify. Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variations in capitalization, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will not count. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all slang forms, will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. If the listed term appears as part of a compound word, usage of that compound word qualifies, provided the listed term remains a distinct component of the compound. This does not include suffixes, prefixes, alternative tenses, or grammatical variations that alter the root word. (E.g. if the listed term is joy, killjoy qualifies but joyful does not. E.g. if the listed term is sun, sunflower qualifies but sunny does not.) If the listed term is part of a hyphenated compound, usage of that hyphenated compound qualifies. (E.g. if the listed term is NATO, pro-NATO and anti-NATO qualify.) The resolution source for this market will be the New York Times daily newspaper, including images of the front page posted daily at: https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
