Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 7 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 7 Nov 2024 to 10 Dec 2024, the highest close was 27% on 8 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 6 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 14% on 9 Nov 2024. $383.21K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 11, 7:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 7 Nov 2024 – 10 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2024 | 25.5% |
| 10 Dec 2024 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 377.79K |
| nincsss | Yes | 2.79K |
| gxrkx | Yes | 453.5 |
| Copoz | Yes | 151 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/november-2024-temperature-increase-c
| Sontrano | Yes | 121 |
| 0rd1naryUs3r | Yes | 46.67 |
| Mrcolag | Yes | 42.5 |
| cuno | Yes | 30 |
| Serty | No | 0.06 |
| wokerjoesleeper | No | 0.02 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
