Will the NDP win 2 or fewer seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$84.8K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 30, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 51% on 12 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 51% on 12 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 9.5% on 13 Apr 2025. $84.77K traded over the market's life.

5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 1, 8:20 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 12 Apr 2025 – 30 Apr 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Apr 2025	51.0%
30 Apr 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.18K
Camo	Yes	250
NiGriMa671	No	0.02

5 of 5 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve according to the number of seats the New Democratic Party (NDP) wins in the House of Commons as a result of the next Canadian general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).