Analytics
Resolved No on 8 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.5%. Yes opened at 13% on 22 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2025 to 8 May 2025, the highest close was 13% on 22 Apr 2025 and the lowest 1.6% on 5 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 7% on 23 Apr 2025. $54.37K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 10, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 22 Apr 2025 – 8 May 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2025 | 13.0% |
| 8 May 2025 | 3.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 21.06K |
| hanschi86 | Yes | 1.1K |
| peter0815 | Yes | 1.01K |
| JohnaThon-189 | Yes | 546.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A papal conclave to elect the next pope will be held in Rome beginning no earlier than 16 days after Pope Francis' passing, and no later than 21. This gives a date range for the beginning of the papal conclave as starting between May 6 and May 12, 2025. This market will resolve according to the number of days the papal conclave to elect the next bishop of Rome following Pope Francis lasts. Counted days will start on the day the conclave begins and end on the day the final vote is cast. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/days-to-elect-the-next-pope
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