Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?

The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. This market will resolve to the first governing party that forms the Australian Government after the next federal election and is able to command confidence in the House of Representatives. The government will be considered formed once the Prime Minister is formally appointed by the Governor-General under non-caretaker circumstances and ministers are sworn in. If no government is formed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or if a new federal election is officially called before that date without a government having been formed under the criteria above, this market will resolve to "Hung Parliament." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Australian government. Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party.

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-government-of-australia