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“Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2028 UTC. As of Oct 3, 12:58 PM UTC, Yes trades at 2.2¢, a 2.2% implied chance, $2.2K traded in the last 24 hours, $11.44K resting in the order book, a 3.6% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 145 daily price points from May 12, 2026 UTC to Oct 3, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.8% and 32.0%); 12 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.9% of the loaded shares; 29 recent public fills from 14 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 145 points · 12 May 2026 – 3 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | 32.0% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 2.2% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ove22 | No | 1.06K |
| Lcz | Yes | 1.02K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No |
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-coalition-will-form-the-next-romanian-government
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 858.7 |
| niglette | Yes | 330.18 |
| 239048 | Yes | 321 |
| AJSV | Yes | 153.59 |
| ScottsRoad | Yes | 80 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Rotten-Venti | Yes | 5 |
| animal.bean | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
