Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be greater than $1,100,000 by March 1?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.2K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 77%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 4 Feb 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 15 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 10.5% on 15 Feb 2026. $1.2K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 4:27 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 1 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Jan 2026	45.5%
1 Mar 2026	23.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TENETENET	Yes	1K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	90.54
cry.eth2	Yes	58

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on March 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on March 1, 2026. If no data for March 1 is released by March 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/12)