Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be less than $415,000 on April 30?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 30, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.0K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 30, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.4%. Yes opened at 49% on 31 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 31 Mar 2026 to 30 Apr 2026 (17 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 57% on 2 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 28 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 57% on 2 Apr 2026. $1.05K traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 1, 12:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 31 Mar 2026 – 30 Apr 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Mar 2026	49.0%
30 Apr 2026	2.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	765.2
Neon Lynx 895D	Yes	267.4
ma99	Yes	100.79

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/27)