Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 22 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 133 daily closes on record from 22 Nov 2025 to 2 Apr 2026, the highest close was 39.5% on 2 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 32.5% on 24 Jan 2026. $2.18K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 3, 1:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 133 points, 22 Nov 2025 – 2 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | 9.5% |
| 2 Apr 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.18K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 129.84 |
| pepes27 | Yes | 118.74 |
This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/max-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-winter
| tailhunter | Yes | 100 |
| human.bean | Yes | 29.47 |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 24 |
| Silver Raven BF21 | Yes | 10 |
| JustBot | Yes | 9 |
| frenkenstein | Yes | 5 |
| mdgc | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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