Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 91.5%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 26 Sep 2023. Before it settled, across the 100 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2023 to 3 Jan 2024, the highest close was 99.6% on 30 Dec 2023 and the lowest 22% on 9 Oct 2023. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 51% on 11 Oct 2023. $40.34K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 3, 2:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 100 points, 26 Sep 2023 – 3 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2023 | 42.5% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | 91.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lmfao | No | 6.51K |
| Walter White | No | 365.25 |
| BullishPomp | No | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In this market, a "Flop" is defined as 'The Marvels' earning less than its $220m budget (as reported by Forbes in September 2023). The “Domestic Daily” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10676048/ will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Marvels' grosses less than $220,000,000 domestically through December 31, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of $220 million or more, this market will resolve immediately to "No". This market may only resolve to "Yes" once the December 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized, or if December 31, 2023 date remains unavailable, another credible source will be chosen to resolve the market.
Resolution source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt10676048/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-marvels-flop
| No |
| 100 |
| Ikeimo | No | 16.13 |
| abra0 | Yes | 5.62 |
| godpoc | Yes | 0.1 |
| Scipio Fabius | Yes | 0.03 |
| ZoZo | No | 0.02 |
| AAA7565 | Yes | 0.02 |
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