Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats?

The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. This market will resolve according to the number of seats the Liberal–National Coalition wins in the Australian House of Representatives (Australia's lower house) as a result of the next Australian parliamentary election. If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Australian government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/). Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party.

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election