Analytics
Resolved Yes on 9 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 90.5% on 21 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 21 Jan 2026 to 9 Feb 2026, the highest close was 100% on 9 Feb 2026 and the lowest 90.5% on 21 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.9 points up, to 96.4% on 22 Jan 2026. $870.52K traded over the market's life.
85 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 10, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 21 Jan 2026 – 9 Feb 2026, chart shows 85%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | 90.5% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 131.21K |
| Large-Tablecloth | No | 125.27K |
| Lunar Ledger E007 | No | 31.74K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election. If the results are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives of the Japanese National Diet. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market (including through merger), the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition (including through merger), with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/japan-general-election-winner
| No |
| 25.36K |
| Blue-General | No | 10K |
| Devoted-Route | No | 9.46K |
| LazyEval | No | 8.14K |
| razals | No | 6.76K |
| TungstenTamaki | No | 5.66K |
| trxslr | No | 3.12K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
