Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 160 and 189 seats?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$7.3K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 7 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 7 Feb 2026 to 9 Feb 2026, the highest close was 34.5% on 7 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 0.1% on 9 Feb 2026. $7.27K traded over the market's life.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 10, 12:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 7 Feb 2026 – 9 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
7 Feb 2026	34.5%
9 Feb 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	5.63K
Tillisdd	Yes	310.88
paspor	Yes	252.54
LeechLord	Yes	160

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election (e.g. if LDP controls 290 and CRA controls 70 as a result of the election, the difference would be 220). The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).