Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40.5% on 31 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 29.5% on 26 Mar 2026. $1.12M traded over the market's life.
372 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 6:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 20.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anas10 | Yes | 81.17K |
| jayceee | Yes | 50K |
| Bumpy-Neon | Yes | 50K |
| starbuck02 | Yes | 6.49K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-kharg-island-oil-terminal-be-hit-by-march-31
| tetrose | Yes | 5K |
| BS-SA-JJ-Team | Yes | 4.16K |
| Violet Quasar 9BE5 | Yes | 4.14K |
| OBDexperience | Yes | 3.33K |
| Light-Explorer | Yes | 2.9K |
| Humongous-Ligand | Yes | 2.85K |
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