Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with <2 dissents?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 28, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.4K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 28, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 28 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 31% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 28 Jan 2026, the highest close was 31% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 22 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 5% on 16 Jan 2026. $2.38K traded over the market's life.

17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 30, 12:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 28 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Jan 2026	31.0%
28 Jan 2026	0.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.16K
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	540
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	295
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	267.07

10 of 17 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the federal funds rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the meeting. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27-28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut). If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.” The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “Other” bracket. This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (<2 or ≥2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.