Analytics
Yes is at 0.4%, about where the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 1.1% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.5%.
$14.63K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $213.05K since listing. The order book holds $99.71K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 338 trades, $787.06 bought Yes and $31.6K bought No; the largest was a $3.44K sell of No at 99.3¢.
The largest Yes position is heypresto with 10K shares; the largest No position is UnderwriterGCR with 4.8K. Ten wallets hold 61.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 11:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| heypresto | Yes | 10.04K |
| UnderwriterGCR | No | 4.84K |
| Masculine-Cassock | Yes | 4.61K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-october-31
| Dafu0715 |
| No |
| 4.47K |
| NotMasterFan | No | 3.69K |
| mx156 | Yes | 3.64K |
| Gummy-Poet | Yes | 2.49K |
| yonose | No | 2K |
| kinderSman | No | 2K |
| VolodimirUa | Yes | 1.98K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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