Analytics
Resolved No on 4 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.8%. Yes opened at 40% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 111 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 4 May 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 9 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 8.5% on 26 Dec 2025. $3.09K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 5, 12:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 111 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 4 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 40.0% |
| 4 May 2026 | 4.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.69K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 150 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 100 |
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-seats-will-iuml-win-in-the-2026-kerala-legislative-assembly-election
| triklozoid | Yes | 42.94 |
| BASSATS01 | Yes | 36.46 |
| Fatherly-Lap | Yes | 33.13 |
| trustmeiknow | Yes | 16.07 |
| human.bean | Yes | 12 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
| ffsFsfq | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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