Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 0.5% on 4 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2024 to 9 Oct 2024, the price held at 0.5%. $2.56M traded over the market's life.
71 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 2:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 4 Oct 2024 – 9 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2024 | 0.5% |
| 9 Oct 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.61M |
| qrpenc | Yes | 102.81K |
| Quiet Harbor D6C8 | Yes | 66.09K |
| guesser1 | Yes | 47.08K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the HBO documentary" Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" currently scheduled to air on October 8, identifies Vili Lehdonvirta as the primary creator of Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If Vili Lehdonvirta and another individual(s) are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "No". If the documentary is not released by October 15, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi
| implantsanta | Yes | 46.77K |
| XPXPXPX | Yes | 45.05K |
| bnp | Yes | 35.92K |
| BBTntwrk | Yes | 22.23K |
| dlp123 | Yes | 20K |
| BrettS | Yes | 17.76K |
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